A Comprehensive Look at the First and Second Nagorno-Karabakh Wars

Armenia and Azerbaijan’s dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region is a conflict that dates back over a century. A previous blog post discussed the origins of the conflict under Soviet rule between the 1920s and 1980s.  

This conflict has continued following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and up until the present day, with the First Nagorno-Karabakh War transpiring between 1988 and 1994, followed by border clashes between 2008 and 2020 and a second war in 2020.  

Let’s take a closer look at what has transpired in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict since 1988 and how these events led to this year’s invasion of the region by Azerbaijan. 

The Lead-Up to the First Nagorno-Karabakh War 

In 1988, the parliament of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, known as the National Assembly of the Republic of Artsakh, voted in favor of unification with Armenia. This vote also included a referendum for independence, which was boycotted by Azerbaijani living in Nagorno-Karabakh. Over 82% of the region voted on these measures and they passed with an overwhelming 99.89% of the vote. 

Demands to unify with Armenia had begun that same year and were peaceful in the beginning. However, as the Soviet Union gradually dissolved over the next few months, the conflict became increasingly violent. The Sumgait and Baku pogroms against ethnic Armenians occurred in 1988 and 1990, respectively. Armenians also launched the Gugark pogrom and Khojaly Massacre against Azerbaijanis in 1988 and 1992, respectively. 

On February 20, 1988, Azerbaijan’s parliament in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) voted to unite Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and violence between the two ethnic groups erupted shortly after. After Azerbaijan seceded from the Soviet Union, the Armenian majority in the region voted to secede from Azerbaijan. 

War Breaks Out in Nagorno-Karabakh  

These clashes and pogroms escalated into full-scale war in the early months of 1992. Turkey’s involvement in the conflict escalated as they dispatched mercenaries to bolster Azerbaijan’s forces and imposed trade blockades, even hindering humanitarian aid access to Armenia. Multiple international mediation attempts, including the Conference for Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE), failed to find a resolution acceptable to both sides, fueling hostilities between the two groups. 

By early 1993, Armenian forces had made substantial gains by capturing seven Azerbaijani-majority districts outside of Nagorno-Karabakh, heightening regional tensions. With the culmination of the war in 1994, Armenians consolidated control over Nagorno-Karabakh and the nearby Azerbaijani territories, including the strategic Lachin Corridor, which links Nagorno-Karabakh to mainland Armenia. A ceasefire brokered by Russia was eventually signed in May 1994. 

The aftermath of this war had a staggering human toll. Hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis were forcibly expelled from Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the adjacent regions. A significant number of Armenians in Azerbaijan and border areas were also displaced. Despite protracted peace talks mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group following the war, no concrete peace treaty was reached. Consequently, Nagorno-Karabakh remained in a nebulous state—de facto independent but lacking international recognition. 

This unresolved status quo led to persistent tensions, sporadic armed conflicts, and an enduring occupation of approximately 9% of Azerbaijan’s territory by Armenian forces. This uneasy standoff would persist, with occasional outbreaks of violence, until the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020. 

12 Years of Border Clashes 

Sporadic clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces began to intensify in 2008. The 2008 Mardakert clashes, sparked by Armenian election protests, led to casualties on both sides. UN Resolution 62/243 demanded that Armenian forces withdraw from Azerbaijani territories. Skirmishes in 2010 resulted in fatalities, marking the heaviest fighting since the 1994 ceasefire. 

Tensions persisted in subsequent years, with fatalities escalating. Border clashes in 2011 left soldiers dead on both sides and 2012 saw an additional surge in fatalities. In 2014, heightened conflict culminated in Azerbaijani forces shooting down a Nagorno-Karabakh helicopter, marking the deadliest year for Armenian forces since the ceasefire. 

The following years saw continued clashes that led to substantial casualties of both military personnel and civilians by 2016. Azerbaijan built up its military with funds from oil revenues, which exacerbated and prompted heavier clashes. Both sides suffered major losses in July 2020.

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War began on September 27, 2020, with Azerbaijan launching an offensive along the established line of contact separating Armenian and Azerbaijani forces.  

Intense clashes unfolded in the less mountainous districts of southern Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan’s parliament declared martial law and imposed curfews following the outbreak. Turkey’s involvement, though disputed, included military support to Azerbaijan. 

The second war introduced modern warfare tactics to the conflict, including drones, heavy artillery, and missile strikes. Azerbaijan’s extensive use of drones was pivotal in shaping the conflict. Despite global condemnation and ceasefire attempts by Russia, France, and the US, the fighting persisted. Azerbaijan’s capture of Shusha, the second-largest city in the region, led to a ceasefire agreement on November 10, 2020. 

The conflict incurred significant casualties, with both sides reporting thousands of military personnel deaths alongside civilian fatalities and extensive damage to urban areas. Reports surfaced about Armenian prisoners of war held in Azerbaijan, with allegations of mistreatment, sparking international concern and a case at the International Court of Justice. The casualties reported by each side were contested, as each side accused the other of downplaying their own losses and exaggerating enemy casualties. 

The signing of the ceasefire shifted control of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan—the agreement compelled all Armenian troops to leave Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territory and forced all ethnic Armenian troops in the region to disband and surrender their weapons. A Russian peacekeeping force was stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh to enforce these terms.  

Since December 2022, the region has been subject to a blockade. Activists, with support from the Azerbaijani government, initially blocked the Lachin Corridor to Armenia, and a military checkpoint was subsequently established. The blockade has led to a humanitarian crisis marked by shortages of food, essential medicines, and fuel. International observers have voiced fears of genocide against ethnic Armenians in the region. The Council on Foreign Relations reported on September 14th that the blockade may have eased slightly, but the crisis is by no means over.